World · Friendlies Women · 2026-07-09 22:00 UTC
United States U20 W
No standing data
WWDW
0 injuries · 31d rest
2.25 – 0.63
Projected goals
Total 2.88
England U20 W
No standing data
LWWWL
0 injuries · 31d rest
Favourite Risk
75/100
United States U20 W · SAFE
Confidence
41/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
73.2% / 18.8% / 7.9%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
Enter bookmaker odds below — markets with positive expected value will be ranked here.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 89.5% | 1.12 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 13.3% | 7.52 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.08 | 0.67 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 83% of available points in last 5+10
- Venue form: 78% of points in last 5 home games+4
- Opponent form: Underdog took 60% of points in last 5-3
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.62 goals+14
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency10/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.48 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.