World · Friendlies Clubs · 2026-07-09 18:45 UTC
H&W Welders
No standing data
WDWLL
0 injuries · 5d rest
2.57 – 0.66
Projected goals
Total 3.22
Dergview
No standing data
L
0 injuries · Rest: n/a
Favourite Risk
73/100
H&W Welders · SAFE
Confidence
44/100
46% data completeness
1X2 (model)
77.8% / 15.7% / 6.5%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
No market currently clears the +2.5% EV threshold. Negative-EV bets are never recommended.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 14.0% | 7.12 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | 2.50 | 1.00 |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Away failed-to-score trend: H ×1.000 · A ×0.920 — Away blanked in 100% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 47% of available points in last 5-1
- Venue form: 33% of points in last 5 home games-3
- Opponent form: Underdog took 0% of points in last 5+9
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.91 goals+14
- Head-to-head: Favourite won 4/6 recent meetings+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness18/4046% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency16/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=0.63 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.