World · UEFA Europa League · 2026-07-09 16:00 UTC· Tofiq Bəhramov
Qarabag
No standing data
WLLWW
0 injuries · 8d rest
2.45 – 1.00
Projected goals
Total 3.45
Vestri
No standing data
LDDWW
0 injuries · 5d rest
Favourite Risk
71/100
Qarabag · SAFE
Confidence
53/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
68.1% / 19.2% / 12.7%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Under 2.5 Goals
+65.4% EV
Model 33.1% · Fair 3.02 · Odds 5.00 · Edge +13.1%
Strong Value🥈
BTTS — Yes
+55.6% EV
Model 58.7% · Fair 1.70 · Odds 2.65 · Edge +21.0%
Strong ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 33.1% | 3.02 | 20.0% | +13.1% | +65.4% | Strong Value | |
| BTTS — Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 37.7% | +21.0% | +55.6% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 26.5% | 3.78 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.17 | 1.20 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.045 · A ×0.955 — 8d vs 5d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
- Away failed-to-score trend: H ×1.000 · A ×0.920 — Away blanked in 100% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 60% of available points in last 5+3
- Venue form: 67% of points in last 5 home games+3
- Opponent form: Underdog took 53% of points in last 5-2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.44 goals+14
- Rest days: 8d vs 5d rest+3
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency6/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.95 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size15/15Best market edge 13.1%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.