World · UEFA Europa League · 2026-07-09 18:00 UTC· Stadion Poljud
HNK Hajduk Split
No standing data
WWWWW
0 injuries · 8d rest
2.41 – 0.35
Projected goals
Total 2.76
Žilina
No standing data
LDDLD
0 injuries · 8d rest
Favourite Risk
92/100
HNK Hajduk Split · SAFE
Confidence
58/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
82.6% / 14.2% / 3.2%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
BTTS — No
+30.5% EV
Model 72.5% · Fair 1.38 · Odds 1.80 · Edge +16.9%
Strong Value🥈
Under 2.5 Goals
+5.3% EV
Model 47.9% · Fair 2.09 · Odds 2.20 · Edge +2.4%
ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47.9% | 2.09 | 45.5% | +2.4% | +5.3% | Value | |
| BTTS — No | 72.5% | 1.38 | 55.6% | +16.9% | +30.5% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 29.5% | 3.39 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 4.9% | 20.59 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.23 | 0.40 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Away failed-to-score trend: H ×1.000 · A ×0.920 — Away blanked in 100% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 100% of available points in last 5+15
- Venue form: 100% of points in last 5 home games+8
- Opponent form: Underdog took 20% of points in last 5+5
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 2.06 goals+14
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency12/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.18 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size15/15Best market edge 16.9%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.