World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 17:00 UTC· Stadion Rodjeni
Velež
No standing data
DWWWW
0 injuries · 161d rest
2.48 – 0.67
Projected goals
Total 3.15
Milsami Orhei
No standing data
DLDWW
0 injuries · 5d rest
Favourite Risk
76/100
Velež · SAFE
Confidence
59/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
76.2% / 16.7% / 7.2%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Over 3.5 Goals
+67.3% EV
Model 38.6% · Fair 2.59 · Odds 4.33 · Edge +15.5%
Strong Value🥈
Over 2.5 Goals
+43.2% EV
Model 61.0% · Fair 1.64 · Odds 2.35 · Edge +18.4%
Strong Value🥉
Over 1.5 Goals
+19.6% EV
Model 83.1% · Fair 1.20 · Odds 1.44 · Edge +13.6%
Strong ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 83.1% | 1.20 | 69.4% | +13.6% | +19.6% | Strong Value | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61.0% | 1.64 | 42.6% | +18.4% | +43.2% | Strong Value | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 38.6% | 2.59 | 23.1% | +15.5% | +67.3% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 14.5% | 6.88 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.17 | 0.75 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.060 · A ×0.940 — 161d vs 5d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 87% of available points in last 5+11
- Venue form: 44% of points in last 5 home games-1
- Opponent form: Underdog took 53% of points in last 5-2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.81 goals+14
- Rest days: 161d vs 5d rest+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency12/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.11 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size15/15Best market edge 15.5%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.