World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 18:45 UTC
NSI Runavik
No standing data
DDDWW
0 injuries · 6d rest
1.30 – 0.57
Projected goals
Total 1.87
Hamrun Spartans
No standing data
D
0 injuries · Rest: n/a
Favourite Risk
66/100
NSI Runavik · CAUTION
Confidence
31/100
38% data completeness
1X2 (model)
53.1% / 31.9% / 15.0%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
Enter bookmaker odds below — markets with positive expected value will be ranked here.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 28.7% | 3.48 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 12.0% | 8.37 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 37.2% | 2.69 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 11.2% | 8.92 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 60% of available points in last 5+3
- Venue form: 73% of points in last 5 home games+4
- Opponent form: Underdog took 33% of points in last 5+2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.73 goals+7
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness15/4038% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency6/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=2.04 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.