World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 14:00 UTC· Estadi Comunal
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
No standing data
WWWLW
0 injuries · 47d rest
1.89 – 0.74
Projected goals
Total 2.63
Mornar
No standing data
LDWWD
0 injuries · 8d rest
Favourite Risk
79/100
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · SAFE
Confidence
48/100
62% data completeness
1X2 (model)
63.5% / 23.8% / 12.7%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Over 3.5 Goals
+7.8% EV
Model 27.0% · Fair 3.71 · Odds 4.00 · Edge +2.0%
Value🥈
Over 2.5 Goals
+4.9% EV
Model 48.8% · Fair 2.05 · Odds 2.15 · Edge +2.3%
Small Lean🥉
Over 1.5 Goals
+3.4% EV
Model 75.0% · Fair 1.33 · Odds 1.38 · Edge +2.5%
Small LeanMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75.0% | 1.33 | 72.5% | +2.5% | +3.4% | Small Lean | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.8% | 2.05 | 46.5% | +2.3% | +4.9% | Small Lean | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 27.0% | 3.71 | 25.0% | +2.0% | +7.8% | Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 16.9% | 5.93 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.060 · A ×0.940 — 47d vs 8d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 80% of available points in last 5+9
- Venue form: 87% of points in last 5 home games+6
- Opponent form: Underdog took 53% of points in last 5-2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.15 goals+12
- Rest days: 47d vs 8d rest+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness25/4062% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency11/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.24 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size2/15Best market edge 2.0%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.