World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 17:15 UTC· Stade John Grun
US Mondorf-les-bains
No standing data
LLL
Injuries: n/a · 6d rest
1.22 – 2.35
Projected goals
Total 3.57
Dinamo Tbilisi
No standing data
WDLWW
Injuries: n/a · 8d rest
Favourite Risk
76/100
Dinamo Tbilisi · SAFE
Confidence
22/100
46% data completeness
1X2 (model)
17.7% / 20.8% / 61.5%
Home / Draw / Away
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Enter bookmaker odds below — markets with positive expected value will be ranked here.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 88.1% | 1.13 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 30.8% | 3.25 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 35.2% | 2.84 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 34.5% | 2.90 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.17 | 2.40 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×0.970 · A ×1.030 — 6d vs 8d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 67% of available points in last 5+5
- Venue form: 47% of points in last 5 away games-1
- Opponent form: Underdog took 0% of points in last 5+9
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.13 goals+11
- Rest days: 8d vs 6d rest+2
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness18/4046% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency4/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=2.32 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty0/10Injury data unavailable — confidence reduced
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.