World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 18:30 UTC· The BetMcLean Oval
Glentoran
No standing data
LDLWD
0 injuries · 5d rest
0.95 – 2.02
Projected goals
Total 2.96
Rīgas FS
No standing data
WDWWW
0 injuries · 5d rest
Favourite Risk
79/100
Rīgas FS · SAFE
Confidence
41/100
62% data completeness
1X2 (model)
15.7% / 23.2% / 61.1%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
No market currently clears the +2.5% EV threshold. Negative-EV bets are never recommended.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 24.4% | 4.10 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 0.88 | 2.13 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 87% of available points in last 5+11
- Venue form: 80% of points in last 5 away games+5
- Opponent form: Underdog took 33% of points in last 5+2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.07 goals+11
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness25/4062% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency6/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.99 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.