World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 19:00 UTC
FK Sarajevo
No standing data
DLWDL
0 injuries · 5d rest
1.08 – 1.27
Projected goals
Total 2.35
Inter Turku
No standing data
No recent form data
0 injuries · Rest: n/a
Favourite Risk
54/100
Inter Turku · CAUTION
Confidence
46/100
31% data completeness
1X2 (model)
29.9% / 31.0% / 39.1%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Under 2.5 Goals
+19.7% EV
Model 58.4% · Fair 1.71 · Odds 2.05 · Edge +9.6%
Strong Value🥈
BTTS — No
+7.1% EV
Model 51.0% · Fair 1.96 · Odds 2.10 · Edge +3.4%
ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58.4% | 1.71 | 48.8% | +9.6% | +19.7% | Strong Value | |
| BTTS — No | 51.0% | 1.96 | 47.6% | +3.4% | +7.1% | Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 29.4% | 3.41 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 36.1% | 2.77 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
Favourite risk factors
- Opponent form: Underdog took 33% of points in last 5+2
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.19 goals+2
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness12/4031% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency12/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.17 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size12/15Best market edge 9.6%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.