World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 19:00 UTC· Elbasan Arena
Dinamo Tirana
No standing data
LDWW
0 injuries · 8d rest
1.38 – 0.94
Projected goals
Total 2.33
FC Astana
No standing data
WWDLW
0 injuries · 6d rest
Favourite Risk
47/100
Dinamo Tirana · CAUTION
Confidence
42/100
46% data completeness
1X2 (model)
45.5% / 30.4% / 24.2%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Under 2.5 Goals
+4.3% EV
Model 58.9% · Fair 1.70 · Odds 1.77 · Edge +2.4%
Small Lean🥈
BTTS — No
+2.8% EV
Model 52.7% · Fair 1.90 · Odds 1.95 · Edge +1.4%
Small LeanMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58.9% | 1.70 | 56.5% | +2.4% | +4.3% | Small Lean | |
| BTTS — No | 52.7% | 1.90 | 51.3% | +1.4% | +2.8% | Small Lean | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 24.4% | 4.10 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.35 | 1.02 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.030 · A ×0.970 — 8d vs 6d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
- Home failed-to-score trend: H ×0.920 · A ×1.000 — Home blanked in 100% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 58% of available points in last 5+3
- Venue form: 0% of points in last 5 home games-8
- Opponent form: Underdog took 67% of points in last 5-4
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.44 goals+4
- Rest days: 8d vs 6d rest+2
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness18/4046% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency11/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.29 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size3/15Best market edge 2.4%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.