World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-07-09 17:30 UTC· The Oval
Caernarfon Town
No standing data
LW
0 injuries · 19d rest
0.84 – 2.59
Projected goals
Total 3.43
FC Levadia Tallinn
No standing data
WWLDW
0 injuries · 5d rest
Favourite Risk
72/100
FC Levadia Tallinn · SAFE
Confidence
44/100
38% data completeness
1X2 (model)
9.1% / 16.9% / 74.1%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
BTTS — No
+10.6% EV
Model 46.5% · Fair 2.15 · Odds 2.38 · Edge +4.5%
Strong ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 46.5% | 2.15 | 42.0% | +4.5% | +10.6% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 20.7% | 4.84 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 0.80 | 2.90 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.060 · A ×0.940 — 19d vs 5d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
- Home failed-to-score trend: H ×0.920 · A ×1.000 — Home blanked in 100% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 67% of available points in last 5+5
- Venue form: 100% of points in last 5 away games+8
- Opponent form: Underdog took 50% of points in last 5-1
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 1.75 goals+14
- Rest days: 5d vs 19d rest-4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness15/4038% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency13/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.02 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size5/15Best market edge 4.5%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.