World · Friendlies Clubs · 2026-07-09 13:00 UTC
SV Wehen
No standing data
WWLW
0 injuries · 105d rest
1.32 – 0.82
Projected goals
Total 2.14
FC 08 Homburg
No standing data
LLWWW
0 injuries · 1d rest
Favourite Risk
73/100
SV Wehen · SAFE
Confidence
61/100
62% data completeness
1X2 (model)
46.8% / 31.5% / 21.8%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
BTTS — No
+26.5% EV
Model 57.5% · Fair 1.74 · Odds 2.20 · Edge +12.1%
Strong ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 16.8% | 5.94 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 57.5% | 1.74 | 45.5% | +12.1% | +26.5% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 19.8% | 5.04 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | 1.00 | 0.50 |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.060 · A ×0.940 — 105d vs 1d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
- Home clean-sheet trend: H ×1.000 · A ×0.930 — Home keep clean sheets in 75% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 75% of available points in last 5+8
- Venue form: 100% of points in last 5 home games+8
- Opponent form: Underdog took 60% of points in last 5-3
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.50 goals+5
- Head-to-head: Favourite won 1/2 recent meetings+1
- Rest days: 105d vs 1d rest+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness25/4062% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency12/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.18 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size14/15Best market edge 12.1%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.