Canada · Canadian Championship · 2026-07-09 02:30 UTC· ATCO Field
Vancouver Whitecaps
No standing data
WWLWD
Injuries: n/a · 46d rest
2.18 – 1.23
Projected goals
Total 3.41
Cavalry FC
No standing data
LWWWL
Injuries: n/a · 4d rest
Favourite Risk
73/100
Vancouver Whitecaps · SAFE
Confidence
37/100
62% data completeness
1X2 (model)
58.1% / 22.3% / 19.6%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Over 3.5 Goals
+11.1% EV
Model 44.4% · Fair 2.25 · Odds 2.50 · Edge +4.4%
Strong Value🥈
BTTS — Yes
+10.4% EV
Model 63.8% · Fair 1.57 · Odds 1.73 · Edge +6.0%
Strong Value🥉
Over 2.5 Goals
+7.4% EV
Model 66.3% · Fair 1.51 · Odds 1.62 · Edge +4.5%
ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66.3% | 1.51 | 61.7% | +4.5% | +7.4% | Value | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 44.4% | 2.25 | 40.0% | +4.4% | +11.1% | Strong Value | |
| BTTS — Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | 57.8% | +6.0% | +10.4% | Strong Value | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 34.7% | 2.88 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.10 | 1.50 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | 1.33 | 1.00 |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Rest days: H ×1.060 · A ×0.940 — 46d vs 4d rest, ±1.5%/day capped ±6%
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 67% of available points in last 5+5
- Venue form: 100% of points in last 5 home games+8
- Opponent form: Underdog took 60% of points in last 5-3
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.96 goals+10
- Head-to-head: Favourite won 2/6 recent meetings-1
- Rest days: 46d vs 4d rest+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness25/4062% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency7/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.90 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty0/10Injury data unavailable — confidence reduced
- Edge size5/15Best market edge 4.4%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.