Russia · Second League - Group 4 · 2026-07-09 13:30 UTC
Izhevsk
#6 · 20 pts
No recent form data
0 injuries · Rest: n/a
3.70 – 1.05
Projected goals
Total 4.75
Dinamo Barnaul
#11 · 14 pts
LLWWW
0 injuries · 4d rest
Favourite Risk
65/100
Izhevsk · CAUTION
Confidence
37/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
84.0% / 10.1% / 5.9%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
Enter bookmaker odds below — markets with positive expected value will be ranked here.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 95.4% | 1.05 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 14.7% | 6.79 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 36.2% | 2.77 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 97.5% | 1.03 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 28.3% | 3.53 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | 2.50 | 0.50 |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- League scoring environment: H ×1.080 · A ×1.080 — League averages 3.03 goals/game (cap ±10%)
Favourite risk factors
- Opponent form: Underdog took 60% of points in last 5-3
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 2.65 goals+14
- Head-to-head: Favourite won 1/2 recent meetings+1
- League position: Table gap of 5 places+3
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency5/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=2.14 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.