Kazakhstan · 1. Division · 2026-07-09 13:00 UTC
Jaiyq
#6 · 19 pts
WDLLW
0 injuries · 6d rest
1.47 – 0.77
Projected goals
Total 2.23
Tobol 2
#13 · 7 pts
LDLDL
0 injuries · 7d rest
Favourite Risk
64/100
Jaiyq · CAUTION
Confidence
57/100
92% data completeness
1X2 (model)
52.4% / 29.5% / 18.1%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
Enter bookmaker odds below — markets with positive expected value will be ranked here.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 18.7% | 5.34 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 17.9% | 5.58 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 47% of available points in last 5-1
- Venue form: 40% of points in last 5 home games-2
- Opponent form: Underdog took 13% of points in last 5+6
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.70 goals+7
- League position: Table gap of 7 places+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness37/4092% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency5/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=2.20 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement6/15Venue-split projections deviate 1.15 goals from overall form
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.