Ecuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 2026-07-09 20:30 UTC
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
No standing data
WWLWD
Injuries: n/a · 6d rest
1.57 – 0.69
Projected goals
Total 2.26
LDU Portoviejo
No standing data
LDLWW
Injuries: n/a · 5d rest
Favourite Risk
70/100
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors · SAFE
Confidence
31/100
62% data completeness
1X2 (model)
57.3% / 27.9% / 14.9%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
No market currently clears the +2.5% EV threshold. Negative-EV bets are never recommended.
Markets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Goals | 19.3% | 5.19 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 15.2% | 6.58 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
- Home failed-to-score trend: H ×0.987 · A ×1.000 — Home blanked in 47% of games (cap −8%)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 67% of available points in last 5+5
- Venue form: 80% of points in last 5 home games+5
- Opponent form: Underdog took 47% of points in last 50
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.88 goals+9
- Head-to-head: Favourite won 1/2 recent meetings+1
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness25/4062% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency6/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=2.00 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty0/10Injury data unavailable — confidence reduced
- Edge size0/15No positive edge identified yet — enter bookmaker odds
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.