USA · USL League Two · 2026-07-09 00:00 UTC
RKC
No standing data
WLLLL
0 injuries · 7d rest
2.16 – 1.80
Projected goals
Total 3.96
Chicago Dutch Lions
No standing data
LWWWD
0 injuries · 6d rest
Favourite Risk
43/100
RKC · AVOID
Confidence
45/100
54% data completeness
1X2 (model)
45.7% / 22.3% / 32.0%
Home / Draw / Away
Best Bet Finder
🏆
Over 3.5 Goals
+6.3% EV
Model 56.0% · Fair 1.79 · Odds 1.90 · Edge +3.3%
ValueMarkets & Value
| Market | Model % | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Implied % | Edge % | EV % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 56.0% | 1.79 | 52.6% | +3.3% | +6.3% | Value | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 24.3% | 4.11 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — Yes | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| BTTS — No | 25.2% | 3.97 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 0.5 Goals | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Home Over 1.5 Goals | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 0.5 Goals | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds | |
| Away Over 1.5 Goals | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — | — | Awaiting odds |
Implied = 1 ÷ odds · EV% = (model prob × odds − 1) × 100 · Edge% = model prob − implied prob. Some odds were pre-filled from API-Football — verify against your bookmaker.
Model breakdown
| Component | Weight | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack/Defence ratings (league-normalised) | 60% | n/a | n/a |
| Recent form (last 5) | 30% | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| Head-to-head | 10% | n/a | n/a |
Capped adjustments
- Home advantage: H ×1.080 · A ×0.950 — Fixed +8% home / −5% away (ratings unavailable, applied as fallback)
Favourite risk factors
- Recent form: Favourite took 20% of available points in last 5-9
- Venue form: 60% of points in last 5 home games+2
- Opponent form: Underdog took 67% of points in last 5-4
- Scoring vs conceding rate: Projected supremacy 0.36 goals+4
Confidence breakdown
- Data completeness22/4054% of model inputs available
- Trend consistency10/20Avg goal-total volatility σ=1.46 across last 5
- Home/Away agreement0/15Venue-split data incomplete
- Injury certainty10/10Injury lists retrieved for both teams
- Edge size4/15Best market edge 3.3%
Pitch Side estimates probabilities from historical and current statistical data. Missing data is never invented — it lowers confidence instead. This is decision support, not a guarantee of profit. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.